Car's of 2010: 2010

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Hungarian Forint Falls on Upcoming Budget Crisis

The growing problems of budget deficits are not an exclusivity among EU countries using the Euro, as several of its eastern nations, as in the case of Hungary, have a budget deficit much above the maximum tolerated by the European Central Bank, affecting the nation’s currency performance.

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Australian Dollar Extend Gains on Interest Rates Outlook

The Aussie profited today from a risk driven scenario in global markets and extended yesterday’s gains after central bankers in the nation said that interest rates may be hiked further this year if the economy continues to recover.

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Mexican Peso Climbs on Prospective Foreign Investors

The Mexican peso had another day of advance as commodities rose globally and speculations that foreign investors will purchase the nation’s bonds helped the Latin American currency to extend its rally for another day in

foreign-exchange markets.

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Dollar Revives Rally on Domestic Data

The dollar gained today versus most of the 16 main traded currencies paring yesterday’s losses as demand for assets in the U.S. rose after several better than expected figures came out in reports published in the U.S., evidencing that the economic recovery in the country is accelerating.

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Chilean Peso Down on U.S. Economic Improvement

The Chilean peso suffered with the side effects of positive reports in North America that attracted traders to purchase assets in the U.S., leaving emerging markets in a second plan for traders to invest their money, despite a considerable level of risk appetite in today’s session.

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Central Banks Tiptoe on Rates

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's central bank intends to raise rates gradually this year to contain inflation while keeping a wary eye on both sovereign risk abroad and the efforts of China to cool its economy

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IMF gold sale of 191.3 T may lure Asian c.banks

By Lesley Wrought on and Lewa Pardoner

SINGAPORE/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said it would soon begin sales of 191.3 tonnes of gold remaining in its plan to raise new resources for lending, with traders saying it may seek buyers among Asian central banks.

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Gold futures drop sharply on IMF sales

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell sharply on Thursday after the International Monetary Fund announced plans to sell 191.3 tons of gold on the open market. The sale, announced late Wednesday, is part of a total of 403.3 metric tons designated for sale last September. Gold futures for April delivery dropped $18.50, or 1.6%, to $1,101.60 an ounce in electronic trading on Globex. "The IMF announcement came in the after-market session and saw gold fall more than $5 an ounce in a matter of minutes, and follow-through offers have been generated overnight, with gold testing below $1,100 an ounce, as a result of the weaker euro/dollar cross," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in a note to clients. The euro was down 0.3% to $1.3563.

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Will begin selling almost 200 tonnes shortly

The International Monetary Fund will "shortly" expand its gold sales on the open market, the Washington-based agency announced Wednesday.

The IMF announced in September it would sell about 13 per cent of its gold reserves. Since then, the central banks of India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka have bought 212 tonnes in private deals.

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Rupee eases by 12 paise against dollar

Mumbai:The rupee depreciated by 12 paise against the US currency in early trade today on fresh capital outflows by foreign funds and the dollar's gains overseas. At the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market, the rupee fell by 12 paise to 46.22 a dollar. The rupee had closed higher by 11 paise at 46.10/11 a dollar in the previous session.
Forex dealers said besides dollar gaining overseas, weak trend on the stock markets also weighed on the rupee sentiment

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Dollar Falls Against Asian Currencie

The Dollar has been reported to be down by 0.1% against six major Asian currencies, today. The Rupee strengthened to a 2 week's high, maintaining at 45.97/98 per Dollar, since morning.

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Monday, February 15, 2010

Fundamental Forecast for New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar finished the week modestly higher against its US namesake, bolstered by a similarly tepid bounce in the US S&P 500 but weighed down by its own economic fundamentals. A NZ Retail Sales report showed the worst month-on-month decline in Core Retail Sales in 14 years. The news of week consumption and disappointing REINZ housing data only served to dampen forecasts for a broader economic recovery, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate expectations were accordingly lower. Analysts had earlier called for the New Zealand central bank to begin raising interest rates in a short few months, but the truly disappointing consumption figures suggest that the bank may yet wait longer. The net effect was New Zealand Dollar weakness against the resurgent Australian Dollar, but market dynamics could just as easily shift on flare-ups in financial market tensions.

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Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar broke out of the downward trending channel from the January high (0.9331) as the economic docket reinforced an improved outlook for the region, and we may see the exchange rate hold a broad range over the following week as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to release its minutes from the policy meeting earlier this month, and the central bank is likely to maintain a neutral stance over the coming months following the record pace of rate hikes during the fourth-quarter of 2009.

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Fundamental Forecast for Canadian Dollar

The Canadian economy is becoming a standout amongst the developed nations which has started to generate support for the local dollar. The sovereign debt issues in European, mounting budget deficits in the U.S. and U.K. makes a fiscally sound Canada an attractive destination for investors. The “loonie” has taken on an unusual role of a safe-haven in the midst of the current turmoil. However, don’t expect the com-dollar to develop a negative correlation with risk as it continues to hold a strong relationship with oil prices. The recent support is more of a vote of confidence for the economy which continues to show signs of improvement. A jump in housing starts to 186K from 174K combined with last week’s strong labor report is evidence of building domestic growth. The International Merchandise trade report declining by 0.2% for a second month is typically a negative and is a product of slumping demand. However, the shortfall in December was due to rising imports outpacing stronger exports.

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Fundamental Forecast for Swiss Franc

Two more warning shots from the SNB failed to drive the EUR/CHF higher but have kept the pair trading above 1.4650. The central bank is suspected to have intervened in the currency market in order to depreciate the local currency against that of its main trading partner as they look to drive demand for exports. Policy makers also fear that a strong franc will continue to import deflationary forces, as was seen in December when consumer prices fell 0.1% on the month. On an annualized basis inflation actually rose by 1.0% which surpassed estimates of 0.8% as transportation and energy cost continue to rise. However, a 0.7% drop in core prices in December will only strengthen the SNB’s conviction to keep their pledge to limit Franc appreciation. The Franc also ended the week even against the greenback despite considerable volatility driven by broader risk trends.

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Fundamental Forecast for British Pound

The Pound lagged behind most of its major counterparts in reflecting the shift in risk appetite that began to unfold four weeks ago as speculation about the end of quantitative easing at February’s Bank of England policy meeting took center stage. That meeting has now come and gone, with the BOE coming out of the announcement looking every bit as dovish as before despite its decision to leave asset purchases at £200 billion for the time being. Indeed, the quarterly inflation report that served as the basis for the decision said that “the pace of recovery is somewhat less strong than [previously expected, while] inflation is likely to fall back to below the target” over the medium term despite a likely uptick above 3% in the first quarter as higher oil prices and sterling depreciation feed through. As for QE, central bank chief Mervyn King explicitly said that although the BOE had paused asset purchases, “it is far too soon to conclude that no more purchases will be needed.

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Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen

There is a critical difference between a currency that is driven by its funding status in the carry trade and one that is treated as a safe haven. On the surface, the two may seem the same since they have recently produced the same end result. A clear example can be drawn from the Japanese yen and the US dollar; both of which have established considerable bull trends over this past month thanks to a strong pace behind the recent wave of risk aversion that has washed over the markets. However, it is critical to discern the differences between these two roles; because the yen’s continued strength is fully dependent on one and threatened by the other.

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Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen

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Fundamental Forecast for Euro

Just six months ago, the euro was prized for its growth outlook, interest rate forecasts and its status as the primary alternative to the US dollar (a currency that has fallen from grace since the financial crisis). Today, we have a very different picture of the same currency: there is little sign of a rate hike from the ECB on the horizon; Growth is very uneven across the Euro Zone’s various member economies; and the very stability of the European Monetary Union has been thrown into doubt. This is perhaps the most dramatic shift of any of the major currencies; and yet this dire fundamental backdrop is not fully appreciated. In the week ahead, the market will keep its focus on the Greece to see whether EU officials can rescue an economy that is quickly fading without evoking severe side effects along the way.

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Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar

The US Dollar finished the week almost exactly where it began, confounding traders with volatile short-term moves yet remaining nearly unchanged. Similarly choppy price action in the S&P 500 underlined financial markets’ indecision and gave few clues on future short-term direction. It seems that financial markets have reached somewhat of an impasse. On the one hand, months and months of stock market advances leave more medium-term momentum to the topside. On the other, the S&P 500 and other major induces remain in a clear bear market and risk further losses following a fairly long period of appreciation. Determining which scenario is most likely is critical to establishing a clear trading bias for the US Dollar. As one of the lowest-yielding major world currencies, the Greenback often falls victim to speculative selling as traders buy higher-yielding currencies. Yet strong bouts of financial market risk aversion most often force substantive US Dollar rallies, and it remains critical to watch risk trends through short-term trading.

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Yen Declines on South Pacific Positive Reports

The yen started this Thursday losing versus the main South Pacific currencies as reports in the region brought risk appetite high in

foreign-exchange markets, after confidence that the economic pace will accelerate in Australia and the New Zea land.

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EU Position Towards Greece Affects Euro

The euro tumbled today after an EU summit in which traders were frustrated by lack of initiative from other bloc’s members to help Greece to prevent its budget crisis to worsen, impacting the continent’s single currency attractiveness, as the region’s economic outlook remains uncertain.

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Canadian Dollar Advances on U.S. Jobless Claims

The Canadian dollar continued to gain today versus its U.S. counterpart as risk appetite rose considerably in North America after U.S. jobless claims declined beyond expectations raising demand in markets that influence the loonie, as stocks and commodities.

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Krona Hits Record High on Swedish Interest Rate Outlook

The Swedish krona traded at the highest level in more than a year versus the euro as the nation’s central bank signaled that interest rates may be hiked sooner than previously expected by analysts, bringing regional investors to purchase assets in the region.

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Ruble Benefits From Oil Rally

Russia is one of the main suppliers of oil for Europe, and today, as the energetic commodity continued to climb, the ruble profited from renewed confidence in trade markets and gained versus several currencies of its trading partners.

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Pound Down on China’s New Requirements

China brought risk aversion once again to high levels before the end of this week’s session after it announced new lending requirements for banks, making the pound to trade towards another week of losses versus lower yielding currencies.

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Europe Economic Data Extends Euro’s Downtrend

The euro is going to finish another week posting losses versus most of the 16 main traded currencies after GDP figures published today for the European Union showed

worse-than-expected numbers for the region which is already suffering from Greece’s financial crisis

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Norway’s Krone Falls on China’s Reserve Requirements

The Norwegian currency ended this week losing versus the euro and the dollar, after the crude oil rally that fueled the krone’s advance during most of this week’s session lost strength, since risk aversion returned to trading markets this Friday with a new Chinese restrictive lending policy

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Euro Continues Bearish on Fiscal Crisis

The euro ended another week losing versus most of the 16 main trading currencies as a concrete rescue plan for several Eur ozone members budget crisis hasn’t been proposed by government officials, bringing pessimism and declining confidence among traders to invest in the region.

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Brazilian Real Posts Weekly Rebound on Optimism

After several weeks dropping on high risk aversion, the Brazilian real benefited from positive news this week coming from North America and Europe, attracting investors back to emerging markets, allowing more attractive riskier assets in Brazil to force the nation’s currency up in

foreign-exchange markets.

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